The numbers may lie, but the difference in Mayfield's play with and without Beckham is staggering. It just means he hasn't done that yet, and an informed, confident decision cannot yet be reached.
That doesn't mean he isn't the franchise quarterback and can't rebound in 2022, earning a long-term deal. But that has not happened consistently enough, and while there have been plenty of outside factors, the bottom line is committing financially to him to the tune of $30 million or more annually is not something this team can do right now. We've all seen what Mayfield's best looks like, and it's some of the best football in the NFL. The one he's been for most this season isn't worth extending.
The player that he was towards the end of 2020 is one who can elevate a roster and win multiple Super Bowls.
There have been so many important variables at play through each step of Mayfield's career that it's nearly impossible to evaluate him in a vacuum.